Written July 25th 2024

Betting: Prediction who will win game between Atlanta Braves and NY Mets july 25th 2024

The Atlanta Braves (52-48) will face off against the New York Mets (60-43) on July 25, 2024, in the opener of a four-game series at Citi Field. The game is set to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and features an intriguing pitching matchup and recent form considerations.

Pitching Matchup

Atlanta Braves: Chris Sale

  • Record: 13-3

  • ERA: 2.70

  • WHIP: 0.96

  • BB/9: 2.0

  • K/9: 11.5

  • Last Start: 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a win against the San Diego Padres on July 14th 2024 (11 days prior)

Sale has been exceptional this season, leading the league with a 0.96 WHIP and maintaining a stellar 2.70 ERA. He has been consistent, not allowing more than 2 ER in his last seven starts, making him a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award.

New York Mets: Luis Severino

  • Record: 7-3

  • ERA: 3.58

  • WHIP: 1.18

  • BB/9: 3.1

  • K/9: 6.8

  • Last Start: 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in a win against the Miami Marlins

Severino has also been solid, with a respectable 3.58 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has shown the ability to deliver quality starts, although his strikeout rate is lower compared to Sale.

Team Performance

Atlanta Braves

  • Season Record: 52-48

  • Recent Performance: 3-game losing streak

  • Run Line: -1.5

  • Offensive Stats: Average 4.2 runs per game (19th in league), allow 3.7 runs per game (1st in league)

The Braves have been struggling recently, with a three-game losing streak. However, they have a solid overall record when favored and boast one of the best defensive records in the league.

New York Mets

  • Season Record: 60-43

  • Recent Performance: 3-game winning streak

  • Run Line: +1.5

  • Offensive Stats: Average 4.9 runs per game (2nd in league), allow 4.7 runs per game (23rd in league)

The Mets have been in good form, with a three-game winning streak and strong offensive output. They have been successful in their recent games as underdogs and at night games following a win.

Betting Odds

  • Braves Moneyline: -115

  • Mets Moneyline: -105

  • Over/Under: 7.5 runs

The moneyline odds suggest a close contest, with the Braves slightly favored. Both teams have compelling reasons to believe they can win this game.

Prediction

Why the Braves Might Win:

  • Chris Sale's dominance this season, including his excellent WHIP and ERA, gives the Braves a significant pitching advantage.

  • The Braves have historically performed well against the Mets following a loss.

  • The road team has covered the run line in each of the last six games between these two teams.

Why the Mets Might Win:

  • The Mets have been strong in night games at Citi Field, particularly following a win.

  • They have covered the run line in their last four night games against teams with winning records.

  • The Mets' offense, averaging 4.9 runs per game, could exploit any potential weaknesses in the Braves' pitching.

Injuries:

  • Both teams have key players missing, with the Braves' Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Ronald Acuña out, and the Mets' Harrison Bader and Starling Marte also unavailable.

Final Prediction!

Given Chris Sale's outstanding form and the Braves' need to break their losing streak, they hold a slight edge in this matchup. The Mets' recent form and home advantage make it a close call, but the Braves' pitching advantage should be the decisive factor.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves to win (-115) and Under 7.5 (-125)


NOTES

  • The Atlanta Braves (52-48) take on the New York Mets (60-43) Wednesday in the opener of a 4-game set at Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET

  • Season series: Tied 3-3

  • Braves - 3 game losing streak

  • Mets - 3 game winning streak

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -115, Mets -105

  • Run line Braves -1.5, Mets +1.5

  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 

  • The Braves went 2-4 over the six games they were money line favorites in their last 10 matchups.

  • This season, the Braves have won 49 out of the 86 games (57%) in which they've been favored.

  • Atlanta is 49-37 this season when entering a game favored by -111 or more on the money line. (also 57%)

  • The Mets have been underdogs twice in the last 10 games and won both contests.

  • In this game, the Braves have a better starter and a better bullpen. They’ll have the pitching advantage throughout, and this Braves lineup has excellent numbers against Luis Severino.

  • Chris Sale has been pitching in this league since 2010; His arm should be in excellent shape, which usually means the Braves win. The Braves have struggled this year, but not when Sale pitches. He is 13-3, and the Braves are 13-5 over his 18 starts. The Mets are 10-9 in Luis Severino starts so braves seem to have the edge in this matchup

  • Braves average 4.2 runs (19th in the league), allow 3.7 average runs (first in the league), 8.1 hits (15th in the league), and let up 7.8 hits (8th in the league)

  • Mets average 4.9 runs (second in the league), allow 4.7 runs (23ed in the league), average 8.6 hits (tied 7th in the league), and allow an average of 7.9 hits (9th in the league)

ESPN statistics

  • Pitchers

  • LHP Chris Sale (Braves)

    • Sale (13-3, 2.70 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a league-leading 0.96 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and 11.5 K/9 through 110 innings.

    • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-3 victory July 14 at San Diego Padres

    • Last start against Mets: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 12-5 home victory Sept. 22, 2021, with Boston Red Sox (his previous starts were in 2018 and 2013)

    • Nas not let up more than 2 ER in his last 7 starts. He’s now the front-runner for the NL Cy Young Award 

  • RHP Luis Severino

    • Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 6.8 K/9 through 115 2/3 innings.

    • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 1-0 victory Saturday at Miami Marlins

    • Last start vs. Braves: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home win May 12

    • 3 career starts vs: Atlanta: 1-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 14 K in 15 IP

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/mlb/braves-vs-mets-prediction-odds-picks-july-25

  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 52.6% chance of a victory for the Braves.

  • The Mets have won in 20, or 46.5%, of the 43 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.

  • New York has a win-loss record of 19-22 when favored by -109 or worse by sportsbooks this year.

  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 52.2% chance of pulling out a win.

https://pickdawgz.com/mlb-picks/2024-07-25/atlanta-braves-vs-new-york-mets-prediction-mlb-picks

  • Why the Mets will beat the Braves

    • The Mets have won each of their last seven night games at Citi Field following a win.

    • The Braves have lost each of their last three games as favorites against National League opponents.

    • The Mets have covered the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.

    • The Mets have led after 3 innings in seven of their last 10 games as underdogs.

    • The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs.

  • Why the Braves will beat the Mets

    • The Mets have lost eight of their last nine night games against the Braves following a win.

    • The Braves have won six of their last seven games against the Mets following a loss.

    • The road team has covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Braves and Mets.

    • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

  • Injuries

    • Braves

      • Second baseman Ozzie Albies

      • Center Feilder Michael Harris

      • Right Fielder Ronald Acuna

      • all in starting lineups and batting lineups so a big hit for Braves

    • Mets

      • Center Fielder Harrison Bader 

      • Right fielder Starling Marte 

      • Again both starters and both in top batting lineup so a hard hit here as well.