Written July 28th 2024

Reds v cubs july 29th 2024 prediction

The Chicago Cubs (49-55) will visit Great American Ball Park to face the Cincinnati Reds (49-53) on July 29, 2024. The matchup will feature starting pitchers Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and Carson Spiers for the Reds. Here's an analysis of the upcoming game and a prediction based on current statistics and trends.

Pitching Matchup

Chicago Cubs: Jameson Taillon

  • Record: 7-5

  • ERA: 2.96

  • WHIP: 1.146

  • Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 3.71

  • Last Start: Solid performance, contributing to a 60% win rate in his starts when the Cubs are underdogs

  • Team Record in Taillon's Starts: 9-8

Taillon has been a consistent performer for the Cubs this season, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and a respectable WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is strong, indicating good control and effectiveness on the mound swaying an advantage in the direction of the Cubs.

Cincinnati Reds: Carson Spiers

  • Record: 3-2

  • ERA: 3.83

  • WHIP: 1.33

  • Strikeouts per Nine Innings: 7.9

  • Batting Average Against: .265

  • Team Record in Spiers' Starts: 3-2

Spiers has been decent in his limited starts, maintaining an ERA under 4.00 and providing solid innings for the Reds. His team has won 2 of his 3 starts when favored, showing that they perform well behind him.

Team Performance

Chicago Cubs

  • Season Record: 49-55

  • Offensive Stats: Average 4.1 runs per game (24th in MLB)

  • Defensive Stats: Team ERA of 3.70 (6th in MLB)

  • Recent Performance: 5-5 in their last 10 games

  • Record as Moneyline Favorite: 21-23 (47.7%)

The Cubs have struggled offensively, ranking 24th in the league, but their pitching staff has been solid, ranking 6th with a 3.70 team ERA. Taillon’s consistency could give them an edge in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Season Record: 49-53

  • Offensive Stats: Average 4.41 runs per game (14th in MLB)

  • Defensive Stats: Team ERA of 3.83 (mid-tier)

  • Recent Performance: 3-7 in their last 10 games

  • Record as Underdog: 24-56 (42.9%)

  • Against the Spread: 3-7 in their last 10 games

The Reds' offense is slightly better than the Cubs', but their recent form has been poor, losing seven of their last ten games. Spiers has been relatively effective, but the team's overall inconsistency could be a concern.

Betting Odds

  • Cubs Moneyline: -111

  • Reds Moneyline: -109

  • Over/Under: 9 runs

  • Win Probability: Cubs 54%, Reds 46%

The Cubs are slight favorites, and the odds reflect a closely contested game. The total set at 9 runs indicates expectations for a moderately high-scoring game.

Prediction

Why the Cubs Might Win:

  • Jameson Taillon's strong performance this season, especially with a 2.96 ERA and solid control.

  • The Cubs’ superior pitching staff, ranked 6th in the league.

  • The Reds' recent struggles, losing seven of their last ten games.

Why the Reds Might Win:

  • Carson Spiers’ decent performance, maintaining an ERA of 3.83.

  • The Reds' better offensive output, averaging 4.41 runs per game.

  • The home-field advantage at Great American Ball Park.

Injuries:

  • No significant injuries reported that would heavily impact the game.

Final Prediction

Given Taillon’s impressive form and the Cubs' better overall pitching staff, they have a slight edge over the Reds, despite playing away. The Reds' inconsistency and recent struggles add to the Cubs' chances, yet both these teams are in sort of sclumps so I also like the under.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs to win (-111) and under 9 runs (-115)

NOTES

  • The Chicago Cubs (49-55) are playing away at Great American Ball Park on Monday where they will play the Cincinnati Reds (49-53). The starting pitchers are Jameson Taillon and Frankie Montas.

  • the Chicago Cubs are putting up 4.1 runs per game, which has them at 24th in the league.

  • The Cubs hold a team ERA of 3.70 for the year (6th in MLB)

  •  RHP Jameson Taillon (7-5, 2.96 ERA)

  • RHP Carson Spiers (3-2, 3.83 ERA)

  • The Cincinnati offense ranks 14th overall in the game with an average of 4.41 runs per game.

  • Bookmakers list the Cubs as -111 favorites on the moneyline while the Reds are at -109. Cincinnati is a 1.5-run favorite (at +178 odds). The total for the contest is set at 9 runs.

  • Win Probabilities: Cubs 54%, Reds 46%

  • This season, the Cubs have won 21 out of the 44 games, (47.7%), in which they've been favored.

  • Chicago has a record of 20-23, (46.5%), when favored by -111 or more by sportsbooks this season.

  • The Reds have won in 24 of 56 games (42.9%) they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.

  • The Cubs have a 1-2 record across the three games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.

  • The Cubs are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

  • In five games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Reds have a record of 3-2.

  • The Reds have a record of 3-7-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

https://baseball.realgm.com/mlb/odds/55862/reds-cubs-mlb-prediction-odds-line-7-29-2024

Reds: Carson Spiers

  • Spiers (3-2) will take the mound for the Reds, his sixth start of the season.

  • The 26-year-old has an ERA of 3.83 and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, with a batting average against of .265 in 10 games this season.

  • The Reds are 2-1 in Spiers' three starts this season with Cincinnati as the moneyline favorite.

  • Spiers' team has put together a 3-2 record in his five starts.

  • Spiers has started five contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in four of them.

Cubs: Jameson Taillon

  • The Cubs will hand the ball to Taillon (7-5) for his 18th start of the season.

  • The 32-year-old has an ERA of 2.96, a 3.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.146 in 17 games this season.

  • His team has won 60% of his starts when they are underdogs on the moneyline (6-4).

  • In games Taillon has started, his team is 9-8.

  • In games Taillon has started this season, the teams are 8-9-0 at hitting the over.