Written August 19th 2024

Betting Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics - August 19, 2024

The Tampa Bay Rays (59-61) will face off against the Oakland Athletics (52-70) on August 19, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but the Rays come into this game as slight favorites. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors and a prediction for the game.

Team Performance and Recent Form

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Record: 59-61

  • Recent Form: The Rays have scored 19 runs in their last 3 games and have managed to score 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 8 games. They have been successful when their offense clicks, winning 11 of their last 12 games when scoring 4 or more runs.

The Rays' offense has been inconsistent, but they’ve shown the ability to explode for runs in recent games. Their overall record reflects a team that struggles to maintain momentum, but they’ve been able to win games when they finally begin to get hits. This can vary game to game but seems like a good day for them today.

Oakland Athletics

  • Record: 52-70

  • Recent Form: The Athletics have scored 11 runs in their last 3 games but have struggled offensively, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 games. This has led to 7 losses in those games.

The Athletics have been struggling offensively, and their inability to consistently score runs has been a major factor in their poor record. Despite this, they’ve shown some resilience as underdogs, winning nine of their last 10 games following a loss and winning 5 of their last 8 games as underdogs. They have slowly been picking it up offensively and playing at home can stir up this match as it is going to be close. 

Pitching Matchup

Tampa Bay Rays: Taj Bradley

  • Record: 6-7

  • ERA: 3.49

  • Strikeouts: 112

Bradley has been solid for the Rays this season, maintaining a respectable ERA and being a reliable strikeout pitcher. He’s been one of the few bright spots in the Rays' pitching rotation and will be a key factor in this game.

Oakland Athletics: Joe Boyle

  • Record: 2-5

  • ERA: 7.39

  • Strikeouts: 35

Boyle has struggled this season, particularly at home where he has an 8.56 ERA and has allowed a .288 batting average in just 13.2 innings. This will be his first career start against the Rays, and given his poor form, it could be a challenging outing for him.

Team Averages and Rankings

  • Rays: The Rays rank near the bottom of the league in several key offensive categories, including hits (27th) and home runs (T27th).

  • Athletics: The Athletics also rank poorly in hits (26th) and strikeouts against (27th). Their offensive struggles have been a significant issue all season.

Betting Odds and Win Probability

  • Rays Moneyline: -130

  • Athletics Moneyline: +110

  • Rays Win Probability: 56.1% based on implied probability

The Rays are slight favorites in this game, and their win probability reflects their recent form and pitching advantage. However, the Athletics have been somewhat unpredictable, especially as underdogs.

Final Prediction

The Rays come into this game with a slight edge, particularly with Taj Bradley on the mound, who has been solid this season. The Athletics' offensive struggles, coupled with Joe Boyle's poor pitching form, make it difficult to see them pulling off a win unless they are able to pick up their slow moving offense, never the less it will be a tight game, probably within 1-2 runs most of the game. My final prediction is Athletics +1.5

Prediction: Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-165)

Notes

  • Oakland Athletics (52-70) vs Tampa Bay Rays (59-61)

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 19 runs in their last 3 games and 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 8 games. The Tampa Bay Rays have won 11 of their last 12 games when scoring 4 or more runs.

  • The Oakland Athletics have scored 11 runs in their last 3 games and 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Oakland Athletics have lost 7 of their last 10 games when scoring 3 or fewer runs.

  • Taj Bradley (rays pitcher)

    • 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA and 112 strikeouts this season

  • Joe Boyle (Athletics) 

    • 2-5 with a 7.39 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. 

    • Boyle has a 8.56 ERA and .288 allowed batting average in 13.2 home innings.

    • This will be Boyle’s first career game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

  • The Athletics have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following a loss.

  • The Oakland Athletics rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1149).

  • The Oakland Athletics rank 26th in the league for hits this season (956).

  • The Tampa Bay Rays rank 27th in the league for hits this season (955).

  • The Tampa Bay Rays rank T27th in the league for home runs this season (113).

  • Rays are -130 as favorites while athletics are +110 as underdogs

  • -1.5 line is +140 while +1.5 of athletics is -165

  • This season, the Rays have been favored 58 times and won 30, or 51.7%, of those games.

  • The Rays have a 56.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

  • The Athletics have won in 41 of 108 games they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.

  • This season, Oakland has won 33 times in 97 games when named as an underdog of at least +108 or longer on the moneyline.

  • The Athletics have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and won five of those.

  • In the last 10 games, the Rays have been named the moneyline favorite just one time, and they won