Written July 27th 2024
Padres v Orioles July 28th 2024
The San Diego Padres (56-50) take on the Baltimore Orioles (61-42) on July 28, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The game is set for 1:35 p.m. ET and features a pitching matchup between Albert Suarez and Randy Vasquez.
Pitching Matchup
San Diego Padres: Randy Vasquez
Record: 3-5
ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.49
BB/9: 2.0
K/9: 5.7
Last Start: 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 K in a 4-0 win against the Washington Nationals
Vasquez has been inconsistent this season, reflected in his 4.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Yet, he had quite the impressive start in his previous game, shutting out the Nationals over six innings. His road performance has been shaky, but he did manage a solid start against the Orioles last season as a member of the Yankees.
Baltimore Orioles: Albert Suarez
Record: 5-4
ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.33
BB/9: 3.2
K/9: 7.2
Last Start: 2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 6-3 loss to the Miami Marlins
Suarez has been reliable for most of the season, but his last start was a disaster, giving up six earned runs in just two innings. Despite this, his home performance has been strong with a 2.31 ERA over nine games, making him a formidable opponent at Camden Yards.
Team Performance
San Diego Padres
Season Record: 56-50
Recent Performance: 8-2 in their last 10 games
Offensive Stats: Average 4.6 runs per game, 9 hits per game (most in league), allow 4.3 runs per game
Season Series: Padres lead 2-0
The Padres are on a hot streak, winning eight of their last ten games, including their last seven straight. They have been effective both offensively and defensively, and their recent performance as road underdogs has been impressive.
Baltimore Orioles
Season Record: 61-42
Recent Performance: 4-6 in their last 10 games
Offensive Stats: Average 4.9 runs per game, allow 4.2 runs per game, 8.7 hits per game, allow 7.8 hits per game
The Orioles have struggled recently, losing their last two games. Despite this, they have a strong season record and have been solid when favored at home. However, their recent slump could be a cause for concern.
Betting Odds
Orioles Moneyline: -161
Padres Moneyline: +135
Over/Under: 9.5 runs
The betting odds favor the Orioles, with a moneyline implying a 60.8% chance of victory. However, the Padres' recent form and their ability to perform as underdogs make them a tempting pick.
Prediction
Why the Padres Might Win:
The Padres have won each of their last five games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
They have covered the run line in each of their last eight games following a road win.
Randy Vasquez's recent performance was strong, and the Padres have been leading early in games, which could give them an edge.
Why the Orioles Might Win:
The Orioles have a strong home record and have been favored in the majority of their games this season.
Albert Suarez has been effective at home, despite his recent poor performance.
The Orioles' offense is slightly more potent than the Padres, which could be crucial in a close game.
Injuries:
No significant injuries reported for either team that would impact the game heavily.
Final Prediction
Even though this is a difficult pick and the game can be swayed either way, given the Orioles are a strong home team and Suarez’s success at home, this gives them the slight edge needed to beat out the Padres. This will be a tight high-scoring game, but with a strong effort, the Orioles will be able to close out this game with a close win.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles to win (-161) and Over 9.5 total runs (+100)
NOTES
Baltimore Orioles (61-42) vs San Diego Padres (56-50)
Game Info: Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 1:35 pm (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Albert Suarez (5-4) (3.48 ERA ) vs Randy Vasquez (3-5) (4.17 ERA)
Betting Odds: Baltimore Orioles -161 / San Diego Padres +135 --- Over/Under: 9.5
The Padres are averaging 4.55 runs, while their pitching is giving up 4.25 runs per game
offense is ranked 13th in the league, while the pitching is ranked 15th
Randy Vazquez
six innings, giving up five hits and zero runs in last start
Orioles Have Lost Two Straight Games
Suarez in his last start gave up six runs
Padres are 8-2 last 10 games, orioles are 4-6 last 10 starts
Padres - AVERAGES 4.6 runs a game, 4.3 runs allowed, 9 hits (most in league) 8.1 hits given up
Orioles - AVERAGES - 4.9 runs, 4.2 runs allowed, 8.7 hits, 7.8 hits allowed
Season series: Padres lead 2-0
The Orioles have been favorites in 79 games this season and won 46 (58.2%) of those contests.
Baltimore is 24-14 this season when entering a game favored by -155 or more on the moneyline.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.8% chance of a victory for the Orioles.
The Padres have won in 24 (53.3%), of the 45 games they were not favored
This season, San Diego has won nine times in 18 chances when at least +130 or longer on the moneyline.
Why the Padres have a chance to win
The Orioles have lost each of their last five games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
The Padres have won each of their last five games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight games following a road win.
The Padres have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
San Diego won its 7th straight game Saturday
RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Albert Suarez
Vasquez (3-5, 4.17 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 69 IP.
Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 4-0 victory at Washington Nationals Tuesday
2024 road splits: 2-2, 5.01 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 5.3 K/9 in 7 games
Only start vs Orioles: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 K in a 6-3 loss on July 5, 2023, as member of New York Yankees
Suarez (5-4, 3.48 ERA) makes his 14th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 72 1/3 IP.
Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-3 defeat at Miami Marlins Tuesday
2024 home splits: 2-1, 2.31 ERA (35 IP, 9 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 9 games
Has not pitched against the Padres since 2016