Written August 11th 2024

Kansas City Royals Vs Minnesota Twins August 12th 2024

The Kansas City Royals (65-53) will travel to Target Field to face the Minnesota Twins (65-51) on August 12, 2024. Both teams are closely matched in the standings especially being in the same divison, and this matchup seems to be a close one. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors and a prediction for the game.

Team Performance and Recent Form

Kansas City Royals

  • Record: 65-53 (27-28 Away)

  • Last 10 Games: 6-4

  • In-Division Record: 25-11

  • Recent Struggles: The Royals have struggled against the Twins recently, losing five of their last seven matchups, and seven of eight at Target Field between this season and late last season.

The Royals have been performing well in the division, but their struggles against the Twins, particularly at Target Field, are concerning. Despite a solid overall season, their away record is just below .500, which might be a factor in this game.

Minnesota Twins

  • Record: 65-51 (34-22 Home)

  • Last 10 Games: 7-3

  • In-Division Record: 26-15

  • Home Field Advantage: The Twins have been strong at home, with a 34-22 record and six wins in their last seven home games. They lead the MLB in batting percentage at home with an impressive .460.

The Twins are in excellent form, especially at home, where they’ve been a strong team winning around 60% of their games. Their recent success against the Royals adds to their advantage in this matchup.

Pitching Matchup

Kansas City Royals: Brady Singer

  • Record: 8-7

  • ERA: 3.03

  • WHIP: 1.19

  • Strikeouts: 121 in 130.2 IP

  • Against Twins: 3-6 record, 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 12 starts

Singer has been solid overall this season, but he’s struggled against the Twins historically. His performance at Target Field has been particularly poor, with only one win in five starts. While his away stats are decent (2-3 record, 3.86 ERA), his difficulty against this specific opponent could be a key factor.

Minnesota Twins: Pablo Lopez

  • Record: 10-7

  • ERA: 4.65

  • WHIP: 1.16

  • Strikeouts: 144 in 129 IP

  • Against Royals: 4-1 record, 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP in five starts

Lopez has been effective against the Royals, boasting a strong ERA and WHIP in his five starts against them. His success at Target Field, combined with his favorable history against Kansas City, gives him a clear edge in this pitching matchup.

Team Averages

Royals

  • Runs/Game: 4.8

  • Runs Allowed/Game: 4

  • Hits/Game: 8.5

  • Hits Allowed/Game: 8.1

Twins

  • Runs/Game: 4.9

  • Runs Allowed/Game: 4.4

  • Hits/Game: 8.5

  • Hits Allowed/Game: 7.8

Both teams are closely matched in terms of offensive and defensive statistics, with the Twins holding a slight edge in run production and home-field advantage.

Injuries

  • Royals: Second baseman Michael Massey is day-to-day with back tightness, which could impact the Royals' lineup. 

  • Twins: SS Carlos Correa remains on the IL with a heel injury, which is a significant loss for the Twins.

Betting Odds and Win Probability

  • Twins Moneyline: -147

  • Run Line: -1.5 at +150

  • Royals Moneyline: +124

  • Total: O/u 8 

    • Over is +100

    • Under is -120

Final Prediction

Given the Twins' strong home-field advantage, recent form, and Pablo Lopez's success against the Royals, they are in a strong position to win this game. While Brady Singer has been solid this season, his struggles against the Twins and at Target Field cannot be overlooked.

Prediction: Minnesota Twins to win (-147) and .5u on Over 8 runs (+100)


NOTES

  • Royals 65 - 53, 27- 28 away, 6-4 last 10, 25-11 in division

  • Twins : 65-51 record, 34-22 home record, 7-3 last 10, 26-15 division record

  • The Twins took three of four from the Royals during their prior series, played in Kansas City earlier this season

  • Game is in Minisota

  • Royals have struggled versus the Twins recently, losing five of their previous seven matchups and seven of eight at Target Field.

  • Twins lead the MLB in batting percentage at home with a .460 

  • Won 6 of last 7 games at home

  • Royals pitcher: Brady Singer

    • 8-7 record, 130.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 121 K, 37 BB

    • 3-6 record with a 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 12 starts against the Twins. 

    • He pitched the game they won against the twins earlier this season

    • won only once at Target Field in five tries.

    • AWAY STATS: 2-3 record, 3.86 ERA, 44 K

  • Twins pitcher: Pablo Lopez

    • 10-7 record, 129 IP, 4.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 144 K, 29 BB

    •  4-1 record with a 2.41 ERA and 0.89 WHIP against the Royals in five starts against them.

  • Royals:

    • AVERAGES

      • 4.8 runs a game

      • 4 runs allowed

      • 8.5 hits

      • 8.1 hits allowed

  • Twins

    • AVERAGES

      • 4.9 runs a game

      • 4.4 runs allowed

      • 8.5 hits

      • 7.8 hits allowed

  • NOTEABLE INJURIES

    • Royals: Second baseman Michael Massey was scratched from the lineup on Saturday with back tightness and is currently day-to-day

    • SS Carlos Correa remains on the IL with a heel injury.